Operation Epic Fury

Given this comical name, it’s evident that someone is not happy with Iran.

This will be without a doubt the beginning of the end of the Islamic regime’s rule there. Too much is at stake and too much has clearly been invested in its removal. Now the regime faces external and internal threats that virtually nullify its ability to respond, therefore Israel and the U.S. and perhaps its allies in the Middle East will capitalise on the advantage and ensure there is a knock-out blow.

What could come after? A secular Iran that is very much pro-Western, surely. This would be a relief to almost everyone. Given Iran’s strategic location, as a bridge between East and West, its strategic mineral and oil wealth and its ability to oversee the Strait of Hormuz, I am all but certain Israel and the US will turn Iran into a proxy-state that furthers its ambitions and national interests. Iran and its current proxy organisations will be cut-off from their funds and cement Israel and America’s dominance in the region. Other Arab states, though wanting no involvement, will be watching carefully.

They will have to decide carefully whether or not they want to align with Russia-China in the East or the US-Israel and allies in the West. Iran’s close connections to Russia and China have not served the regime as well as hoped and we do not see interventions from either nation-state to protect them from these US-Israeli strikes currently.

There are even early reports now that the Ayatollah has passed away. He could be replaced very easily and the IRGC’s control over the country will not diminish easily, but against the internal opposition groups they could finally feel their grasp slipping away.

This leads to the question: What comes next? Could a restoration of the Shah occur? Would that mean a fundamentally dramatic shift in Iran’s governance? It would likely still uphold Islamic values and law, but perhaps to a lesser extent.

I, personally, would prefer to see a dramatic shift away from a theocracy towards a completely secular government, giving the Iranian people the freedom to be irreligious. That could be many decades away though. The Iranian constitution clearly states that it derives all its laws from the Quran and its interpretations made there. It would be nice to see, unlike the influence of God in Israeli and American politics, that there be a free space in Iran from religion. For now we can only hope that Iran joins the club of westernised Arab states that seem to make concerted efforts, but in keeping with their Muslim faith, towards equality and some democracy.

There will be a lot invested in the outcome, I imagine, just as there has been in Gaza and its new peace arrangement. We will have to await the results as this operation continues. Let me know what you think may happen!